In some collector domains, you can almost rely on certain times during the year when available inventory either takes a spike, or thins out. In summertime, a lot of people get busy with vacations or are in acquisition mode with a little extra time. So available inventory tends to dry up, but then into autumn, some people go through possession purges and there will be more inventory listed on used market sites. Also, into the thick of the major holiday seasons, people are often devoted to putting money towards gifts and not buying much stuff for themselves. So those can be lean inventory times.
But then of course, if you’re at a comfortable enough income level, there is no seasonal phenomenon for yourself. You just keep looking all year round for what you want and buy it when it’s available. And sometimes you get lucky with a lighter bidding pool (like during the summer) able to score items at a cheaper price (unless you get unlucky with a “doppelganger”–another collector who is hungry for the same thing).
Have you noticed any trends like this in the pencil collecting arena?
I haven’t really been paying close attention, but generally I’ve found myself with better bidding luck during the summer. And after the major holidays, bidding competition can be more intense. And what I mean is, more people watching and bidding on items. This is independent of the power bidder… because they can show up at any time.
As an aside…
Does it seem like available inventory of “the good stuff” is waning these days? It just seems to me like this past year has been kind of lean. A few moments with clusters of auctions for sought-after pencils, but mostly slim pickings. And I think that has caused a few models that used to sell for a certain general price to shoot up. A combination of newer collectors or older collectors who have certain pieces missing.
And another thing is… determined collectors, or voracious resellers. For a long time I’d been seeing certain accounts, like yosshy43, who sell on YAJ but also bid rather aggressively too… often winning pencils and then flipping them again on YAJ for a much higher price. There have been a number of such accounts in the past, but a few of them seem to have fizzled out. But ones like yosshy43 are still out there. I wonder if some resell in other markets too. Yosshy43 resells on Mercari JP.
It also depends upon the venue. Regionally, this can also vary. But have you also been noticing a thinning out of vintage pencil auctions going on these days, compared to previous years?
Still plenty of super high end and super uninteresting pieces, but the “good stuff” in the middle appears to be thinning faster than grandma’s hair.
Yes, the higher end hasn’t thinned out too badly, but it does seem like there’s fewer now. It used to be you would see the Hi Uni 3050 or 5050 come up in a new auction at least every month or so… but now we see much less and a lot of repeats due to being way overpriced.
And yeah, the middle end has thinned out the worst… making some models go sky-high like never before. I remember when you could get a Sprinter with price sticker for less than ¥10,000. Now? It’s like double that, if not more. And I remembered seeing examples with the label worn off, often going for around ¥5,000. Now those are going for triple the price, even with anodizing wear to the clip.
Yes, regarding venue I agree with @2nd_astronaut. It is ebay that is flush in the fall leading to Christmas.
I have found vintage stuff I want to buy to be pretty thin for almost 2 years. But I sometimes wonder if that is because I don’t look for pieces I already have.
Somehow @drifand has found a way to keep the pace regardless of seemingly low supply. What is the secret?
The trick for (me) is not to post about everything the moment it lands in my hands. My shtick is matching pens to pencils. I just keep them in storage until I have an interesting pairing to talk about.
I know what you are saying is true, but the fact that you have finally completed serious runs of Uchida, Uni drafting, and Pilot drafting in the past year or so tells me there is more to the game than delayed public posting. Kudos.
Well, I think a certain ruthlessness comes into it. I was probably… irresponsible (as Patrick might put it) a couple of times, because I had so few real targets of interest. e.g. I most definitely overpaid for my Uchida E blue, and my 0.5 Variable. It all comes down to time versus money. I can earn back the money. It is definitely a good idea to set aside a budget / save up for things that you want, and then wait to pounce. Otherwise, it’s about patience. Even I don’t really recall how long I held onto my motley crew of Mx-1052s and 1006s until finding that display tray spurred me to look harder for the missing pieces.
Definitely agree. In two separate occasions, I managed to get two of my most sought-after pieces precisely because their Ebay auctions ended on Dec 26th and Dec 27th, respectively. Many European and American buyers were probably too busy dealing with the festivities to check on the site, whereas I was there, bidding like crazy and crossing my fingers for the listings to go mildly unnoticed.
None of those was a cheap piece, and I was constantly afraid to loose the game, but the final figures still turned out to be much lower than the current Ebay price.
I still hope for the last two or three Christmas-related lucky strikes to close a key chapter of my collection.
